Fishers’ knowledge indicates short-term temporal changes in the amount and composition of catches in the southwestern Atlantic     

《Marine Policy》2016

The scarcity of data on fish catches difficult management of small-scale fisheries in developing countries. This study applies fishers’ knowledge to investigate temporal changes in the amount (biomass) and composition (major ecological categories) of fishing resources exploited by small-scale coastal fisheries in the southeastern Brazilian coast. Four hypotheses were investigated: (1) The amount of fish caught reported by fishers would decrease over time. (2) Older fishers would report higher fish catches than younger fishers. (3) Recent interviews would mention large-sized predators less often. (4) Recent interviews would mention less high valued fishing resources. Interviews with 421 fishers in 36 communities in the southeastern Brazilian coast were analyzed, covering a time span of 14 years, from 1995 to 2009. The hypothesis 1 was confirmed, 3 was partially confirmed, while 2 and 4 were not confirmed. Fishers’ age was unrelated to all variables. The results from fishers’ interviews indicated the temporal trends of: (1) a decrease in the biomass of fish caught; (2) an increase in the occurrence of smaller fish and invertebrates in the catch; (3) an increase of high value fishing resources; and (4) maintenance of large predators. The first two indicators suggest excessive fishing, but the later indicators (3 and 4) suggest that the socioecological system of the southeastern Brazilian coast had not yet undergone major ecological shifts.  相似文献   

Task-oriented information value measurement based on space-time prisms     

Yingjie Hu  Krzysztof Janowicz  Yuqi Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(6):1228-1249

Recent years have witnessed a large increase in the amount of information available from the Web and many other sources. Such an information deluge presents a challenge for individuals who have to identify useful information items to complete particular tasks in hand. Information value theory (IVT) from economics and artificial intelligence has provided some guidance on this issue. However, existing IVT studies often focus on monetary values, while ignoring the spatiotemporal properties which can play important roles in everyday tasks. In this paper, we propose a theoretical framework for task-oriented information value measurement. This framework integrates IVT with the space-time prism from time geography and measures the value of information based on its impact on an individual’s space-time prisms and its capability of improving task planning. We develop and formalize this framework by extending the utility function from space-time accessibility studies and elaborate it using a simplified example from time geography. We conduct a simulation on a real-world transportation network using the proposed framework. Our research could be applied to improving information display on small-screen mobile devices (e.g., smartwatches) by assigning priorities to different information items.  相似文献   

Hybrid Gaussian-cubic radial basis functions for scattered data interpolation     

Pankaj K. Mishra  Sankar K. Nath  Mrinal K. Sen  Gregory E. Fasshauer 《Computational Geosciences》2018,22(5):1203-1218

Scattered data interpolation schemes using kriging and radial basis functions (RBFs) have the advantage of being meshless and dimensional independent; however, for the datasets having insufficient observations, RBFs have the advantage over geostatistical methods as the latter requires variogram study and statistical expertise. Moreover, RBFs can be used for scattered data interpolation with very good convergence, which makes them desirable for shape function interpolation in meshless methods for numerical solution of partial differential equations. For interpolation of large datasets, however, RBFs in their usual form, lead to solving an ill-conditioned system of equations, for which, a small error in the data can cause a significantly large error in the interpolated solution. In order to reduce this limitation, we propose a hybrid kernel by using the conventional Gaussian and a shape parameter independent cubic kernel. Global particle swarm optimization method has been used to analyze the optimal values of the shape parameter as well as the weight coefficients controlling the Gaussian and the cubic part in the hybridization. Through a series of numerical tests, we demonstrate that such hybridization stabilizes the interpolation scheme by yielding a far superior implementation compared to those obtained by using only the Gaussian or cubic kernels. The proposed kernel maintains the accuracy and stability at small shape parameter as well as relatively large degrees of freedom, which exhibit its potential for scattered data interpolation and intrigues its application in global as well as local meshless methods for numerical solution of PDEs.  相似文献   

Air pollution forecasting from sky images with shallow and deep classifiers     

Mohammad Saleh Vahdatpour  Hedieh Sajedi  Farzad Ramezani 《Earth Science Informatics》2018,11(3):413-422

Air pollution is one of the most important problems in the new era. Detecting the level of air pollution from an image taken by a camera can be informative for the people who are not aware of exact air pollution level be declared daily by some organizations like municipalities. In this paper, we propose a method to predict the level of the air pollution of a location by taking an image by a camera of a smart phone then processing it. We collected an image dataset from city of Tehran. Afterward, we proposed two methods for estimation of level of air pollution. In the first method, the images are preprocessed and then Gabor transform is used to extract features from the images. At the end, two shallow classification methods are employed to model and predict the level of air pollution. In the second proposed method, a Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) is designed to receive a sky image as an input and result a level of air pollution. Some experiments have been done to evaluate the proposed method. The results show that the proposed 9 method has an acceptable accuracy in detection of the air pollution level. Our deep classifier achieved accuracy about 59.38% which is 10 about 6% higher than traditional combination of feature extraction and classification methods.  相似文献   

A Review of “Computer Age Statistical Inference” by Bradley Efron and Trevor Hastie     

Murali Haran 《Mathematical Geosciences》2018,50(3):365-367

  相似文献   

Do sedentary behavior and physical activity spatially cluster? Analysis of a population-based sample of Boston adolescents     

Kosuke Tamura  Dustin T. Duncan  Jessica Athens  Marc Scott  Michael RientiJr.  Jared Aldstadt  Laurie M. Brotman  Brian Elbel 《GeoJournal》2018,83(4):775-782

Sedentary behavior and lack of physical activity are key modifiable behavioral risk factors for chronic health problems, such as obesity and diabetes. Little is known about how sedentary behavior and physical activity among adolescents spatially cluster. The objective was to detect spatial clustering of sedentary behavior and physical activity among Boston adolescents. Data were used from the 2008 Boston Youth Survey Geospatial Dataset, a sample of public high school students who responded to a sedentary behavior and physical activity questionnaire. Four binary variables were created: (1) TV watching (>2 h/day), (2) video games (>2 h/day), (3) total screen time (>2 h/day); and (4) 20 min/day of physical activity (≥5 days/week). A spatial scan statistic was utilized to detect clustering of sedentary behavior and physical activity. One statistically significant cluster of TV watching emerged among Boston adolescents in the unadjusted model. Students inside the cluster were more than twice as likely to report >2 h/day of TV watching compared to respondents outside the cluster. No significant clusters of sedentary behavior and physical activity emerged. Findings suggest that TV watching is spatially clustered among Boston adolescents. Such findings may serve to inform public health policy-makers by identifying specific locations in Boston that could provide opportunities for policy intervention. Future research should examine what is linked to the clusters, such as neighborhood environments and network effects.  相似文献   

Predicting rock size distribution in mine blasting using various novel soft computing models based on meta-heuristics and machine learning algorithms     

Chengyu Xie  Hoang Nguyen  Xuan-Nam Bui  Yosoon Choi  Jian Zhou  Thao Nguyen-Trang 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(3):101108

Blasting is well-known as an effective method for fragmenting or moving rock in open-pit mines. To evaluate the quality of blasting, the size of rock distribution is used as a critical criterion in blasting operations. A high percentage of oversized rocks generated by blasting operations can lead to economic and environmental damage. Therefore, this study proposed four novel intelligent models to predict the size of rock distribution in mine blasting in order to optimize blasting parameters, as well as the efficiency of blasting operation in open mines. Accordingly, a nature-inspired algorithm (i.e., firefly algorithm – FFA) and different machine learning algorithms (i.e., gradient boosting machine (GBM), support vector machine (SVM), Gaussian process (GP), and artificial neural network (ANN)) were combined for this aim, abbreviated as FFA-GBM, FFA-SVM, FFA-GP, and FFA-ANN, respectively. Subsequently, predicted results from the abovementioned models were compared with each other using three statistical indicators (e.g., mean absolute error, root-mean-squared error, and correlation coefficient) and color intensity method. For developing and simulating the size of rock in blasting operations, 136 blasting events with their images were collected and analyzed by the Split-Desktop software. In which, 111 events were randomly selected for the development and optimization of the models. Subsequently, the remaining 25 blasting events were applied to confirm the accuracy of the proposed models. Herein, blast design parameters were regarded as input variables to predict the size of rock in blasting operations. Finally, the obtained results revealed that the FFA is a robust optimization algorithm for estimating rock fragmentation in bench blasting. Among the models developed in this study, FFA-GBM provided the highest accuracy in predicting the size of fragmented rocks. The other techniques (i.e., FFA-SVM, FFA-GP, and FFA-ANN) yielded lower computational stability and efficiency. Hence, the FFA-GBM model can be used as a powerful and precise soft computing tool that can be applied to practical engineering cases aiming to improve the quality of blasting and rock fragmentation.  相似文献   

Reducing wind power curtailment in China: comparing the roles of coal power flexibility and improved dispatch     

Hong Lu  Qionghui Li  Ryan Wiser  Kevin Porter 《Climate Policy》2019,19(5):623-635

Renewable energy curtailment is a critical issue in China, impeding the country’s transition to clean energy and its ability to meet its climate goals. This paper analyzes the impacts of more flexible coal-fired power generation and improved power dispatch towards reducing wind power curtailment. A unit commitment model for power dispatch is used to conduct the analysis, with different scenarios demonstrating the relative impacts of more flexible coal-fired generation and improved power dispatch. Overall, while we find both options are effective in reducing wind power curtailment, we find that improved power dispatch is more effective: (1) the effect of ramping down coal-fired generators to reduce wind power curtailment lessens as the minimum output of coal-fired generation is decreased; and (2) as a result, at higher wind capacity levels, wind curtailment is much more significantly reduced with improved power dispatch than with decreased minimum output of coal-fired generation.

Key policy insights

• China should emphasize both coal power flexibility and dispatch in its policies to minimize renewable power curtailment and promote clean energy transition.

• China should accelerate the process of implementing spot market and marginal cost-based economic dispatch, while making incremental improvements to the existing equal share dispatch in places not ready for spot market.

• A key step in improving of dispatch is incorporating renewable power forecasts into the unit commitment process and updating the daily unit commitment based on the latest forecast result.

• China should expand the coal power flexibility retrofit programme and promote the further development of the ancillary service market to encourage more flexibility from coal-fired generation.

  相似文献   

Convective adjustment in box models     

《Ocean Modelling》2010,35(3-4):92-110

A convective adjustment (CA) algorithm is thought to be responsible for grid-scale oceanic-state sustained oscillations seen in oceanic general circulation models (OGCM), an effect that is most evident in simulations with coarse spatio-temporal scales. The CA algorithm is thought to inadvertently create a salt oscillator. Several studies have confirmed that a flip-flop type salt oscillator, which is reminiscent in some respects of simple CA schemes, can develop sustained oscillations. Subsequently, several researchers were able to show how coupled salt oscillators, reacting in a particular temporal sequence, are capable of producing large-scale oscillations not unlike those found in the OGCM simulations. However, the proxy models used to study how CA can create these oscillations in large-scale simulations were never directly related to OGCM results.Here we couple hydrodynamics to the CA and look at zonally-driven flows in the low-frequency, large-scale limit. Adding flow is a step in the direction of developing an analytically tractable model with which to understand the basics of OGCMs. We analytically determine whether, and under what circumstances, the CA scheme is responsible for sustained oscillations.We carry out this program for four basic box-model configurations, each inspired by the general shape of the eigenfunctions and constraints of the large-scale zonally-averaged forced flow over a hemisphere. Furthermore, in order to make our results relevant to the Meridional Ocean Circulation, we also investigate the effect of replacing the usual assumption of a linear relation between thermohaline flow rate and horizontal density gradient with a nonlinear hydraulic relationship.We find that a salt oscillator does not occur in the most common box-model configurations. In one of our models, however, we find wide parameter ranges in which all steady states calculated for the model fail to satisfy the CA scheme, the situation which is expected to result in CA-induced oscillations. The model in question corresponds to a hemispheric shallow thermohaline flow over a deep reservoir. However, we find that oscillations occur in these parameter ranges only if the density threshold for convection is negative, i.e., if the CA scheme turns on convection between vertically adjacent boxes when the density stratification between them is still slightly stable. In this situation, the amplitude and period of the oscillations depend strongly on the size of the density threshold, both vanishing as the threshold is taken toward zero. We also show that the same is true in the Welander flip-flop model of a single salt oscillator. For positive values of the threshold, that is, when the CA scheme is allowed to ignore small unstable stratification changes, oscillations do not occur in the limit of integration time step going to zero, but can still be seen when the time step is finite, even if small. Moreover, the system evolves toward a new steady state, one in which the stratification in one box is exactly the threshold value itself. We show how to calculate these new steady states, and explain why they give way to oscillations when the density threshold is negative.  相似文献   

Application of a Bayesian model to infer the contribution of coalbed natural gas produced water to the Powder River,Wyoming and Montana          下载免费PDF全文

Jason M. Mailloux  Kiona Ogle  Carol D. Frost 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2361-2381

The Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming and Montana contains significant coal and coal bed natural gas (CBNG) resources. CBNG extraction requires the production of large volumes of water, much of which is discharged into existing drainages. Compared to surface waters, the CBNG produced water is high in sodium relative to calcium and magnesium, elevating the sodium adsorption ratio (SAR). To mitigate the possible impact this produced water may have on the quality of surface water used for irrigation, the State of Montana passed water anti‐degradation legislation, which could affect CBNG production in Wyoming. In this study, we sought to determine the proportion of CBNG produced water discharged to tributaries that reaches the Powder River by implementing a four end‐member mixing model within a Bayesian statistical framework. The model accounts for the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, δ¹³C_DIC, [Sr] and [DIC] of CBNG produced water and surface water interacting with the three primary lithologies exposed in the PRB. The model estimates the relative contribution of the end members to the river water, while incorporating uncertainty associated with measurement and process error. Model results confirm that both of the tributaries associated with high CBNG activity are mostly composed of CBNG produced water (70–100%). The model indicates that up to 50% of the Powder River is composed of CBNG produced water downstream from the CBNG tributaries, decreasing with distance by dilution from non‐CBNG impacted tributaries from the point sources to ~10–20% at the Montana border. This amount of CBNG produced water does not significantly affect the SAR or electrical conductivity of the Powder River in Montana. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献